Archive for July, 2006

Where I’ve been

Sunday, July 30th, 2006

Not blogging – away from connectivity. Where? Denver, Colorado. Why? My grandmother died last Tuesday evening about 45 minutes after I helped her care taker sit her up in bed. She was 94.

It all happened so fast – about 4 weeks ago she fell asleep on the couch, woke up disoriented, and rolled off onto the floor fracturing a couple vertebrae. A procedure that injected glue into the bones to shore them up had to be followed up by physical therapy. So she moved into a residential assisted living place where therapists can work with her daily.

But they were awful, allowing her to become severely dehydrated and overdoing the pain meds. So we took her home. She was barely lucid, trying to shake off the pain meds. I spent some time with her, doing all the talking, holding her hand. When I went to leave, she squeezed my hand and so I stayed longer. A little later I stopped in to help her caretaker sit her up. She didn’t like it – it was painful. I laid her back down and left with my mom to go get a pizza for dinner. By the time we got back, she was gone. I learned this by noticing a missed call and message on my cell phone. It was my aunt.

The first memorial service was held in Denver on Saturday. Probably about 100 people showed up. That’s quite a lot considering she only lived in Denver for about 15 years. The second one will be on the 12th in the Michigan town where she and my grandfather built and ran a hospital until my grandfather’s death in 1964.

You might think “well, she was 94, she had a full life, nothing really to mourn”. Intellectually we all know that. But, curiously, it doesn’t make it any less painful. Anyhow, I’ve been taking a little break for computers and cyberspace. I’ll be back soon.

I’m getting better! I feel happy! I feel happy!

Thursday, July 20th, 2006

Little snippet of Monty Python there.

Scoble points to the lastest Apple is Dying rant.

This time its not PC marketshare that predicts their demise but a drop in iPod sales. What is causing the drop? Tomi claims iPod sales are being displaced by music phone sales. I don’t doubt that more music phones are being sold. But I do doubt that people are using them to consume music.

First, I’ve got a very spiffy motorola camera phone with gps, bluetooth and a whole bunch of nifty features that have been crippled by my service provider for no apparent reason. I can’t even download the pictures I take with it to my computer over bluetooth. Apparently the phone is capable, but the feature is locked out. This is typical of dimwitted US cell phone providers – they offer spiffy phones and then cripple them to try to upsell services. Expect the music downloading to be similarly encumbered. So, for instance, I’ll bet most of these phones will let you buy music, but won’t let you upload it to iTunes.

My cell phone apparently will let me buy cartoons and video too. I don’t bother – so does this count as purchase of a video player? It shouldn’t.

Which brings me to the key point. The real service I care about is end to end service with ITMS. I like being able to buy singles for a buck and take them with me, but also add them to the home music library. Will the music phones integrate with ITMS? Can I upload them to iTunes? If not they’re stillborn for the current customer base.

I have a couple other theories for why sales have fallen. Market saturation is one. Most people who want an iPod have an iPod. Furthermore, I think the novelty of having all your music with you all the time is wearing thin for some. I see less people walking around with headsets on in general these days. Perhaps for some, the lifestyle simply didn’t stick.

Other nit is I don’t think he’s counting the ROKR as an iPod – but it is. Minor point I know. Also, I believe that the iPod will eventually converge with the phone, but I think Apple will do it either by licensing the technology as in the ROKR or bringing out their own phone.

Definitely I don’t think the iPod is doomed – too many network effects to consider. I’m certainly not switching anytime soon.

Employers think workers are stupid

Tuesday, July 18th, 2006

About once a week some recruiter emails me with a “great opportunity”. Only the opportunities are usually worse than I have now.

In a keyword search your resume came up as being possibly qualified for the following position I have open
with a very successful IP Network Security software development company I am currently working with in the
Sunnyvale area:

Please review the following requirements and reply with a copy of your resume if you would be interested:

Sunnyvale. I quickly do a web search for median home price of Sunnyvale and find its about double my current home value. So I email the guy and tell him my salary requirements to consider a move. His reponse?

Sorry, that’s a CEO salary.

Ignoring for a second that I have yet to meet a CEO worth anywhere near what he gets paid, I tell him to go ahead and outsource the job somewhere with sane real estate prices. I mean, since when are knowlege workers supposed to be stupid enough to take a real pay cut?

No wonder they can’t find qualified workers, they are totally oblivious to the market forces talent has to deal with. My salary expectation is (median home price)/4. No matter where you are. If you can’t pay that, move or plan on outsourcing to some location where people can afford to live on what you are willing to pay. That doesn’t necessarily mean India or China or Russia or some other country. Lots of folks in the US live in sanely priced areas as well who can do the job just as well or better for the money you’re willing to pay as long as you don’t expect them to relocate.

Workers have costs too. Respect that.

Today’s Talking Point: World War III?!?

Monday, July 17th, 2006

Its not hard to spot the daily talking point. You read a few quotes in a few interviews and a new phrase appears in the echo chamber and reverberates throught the mainstream media. Today’s utterance is WORLD WAR III!

Don’t believe me? Take a look.

This is the PNAC whack jobs’ wet dream come true. A self fulfilling prophecy in action. If there are any analogies to WW II that hold up, it looks like the US is playing Germany’s role and Bush is starring in Hitler’s. This might be a good time to remind our military leaders that they pledged allegiance to defend the constitution and not the people in office. Resolve that as you see fit.

I’m plenty freaked out by this development. You should be too.

Condoleeza Rice is WRONG AGAIN

Sunday, July 16th, 2006

I have lost all respect for Condoleeza Rice.

Primarily I have lost it because she keeps trying to draw the line from 9/11 to Iraq and there is no line to draw. I found her “We don’t want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud.” comment to be pure posturing. Blix and the UN wanted more time to find the “smoking gun” that was Saddam’s WMDs. He couldn’t find the gun, because it didn’t exist. We all know how that turned out.

This week, Rice again tried to draw the line by insisting that the situation in Iraq has nothing to do with instability in the middle east.

Only Iraq was chosen as a target because of its central location in the middle east. The idea being that democracy would start there and spread out in all directions. Nifty pipe(line) dream there. Crooks and Liars has a bit of a recent interview with the key bits here:

STEPHANOPOULOS: Extremists now appear to have been emboldened. The moderates appear to be in retreat. There is no peace process. There is war. How do you answer administration critics who say that the administration’s actions have unleashed, have helped unleash the very hostilities you hoped to contain?

RICE: Well, first of all, those hostilities were not very well contained as we found out on September 11th, so the notion that policies that finally confront extremism are actually causing extremism, I find grotesque.

Again with the propaganda. Pre Iraq, bin Laden and al qaeda were about as influential as Charles Manson and his family. The key difference is that Osama had disposable income to fund a bigger Helter Skelter. We didn’t fall for Manson’s plot, but Rice fell for Osama’s hook line and sinker. Through the ham handed handling of our foreign policy and repeated failure to exhuast diplomatic channels before going to the last resort of military force, we have elevated the Manson of the middle east to near-martyr status and multiplied is recruiting efforts a thousand fold. We squandered all of the good will and sympathy for 9/11 by holding accountable an entire country (and the wrong one at that).

Zero cred

Losing email switching jobs

Friday, July 14th, 2006

Scoble talks about switching jobs and leaving lots of email behind. The solution to this problem is to move all knowledge hidden in emails to a team wiki available to all others in your organization.

Root cause analysis

Wednesday, July 12th, 2006

The train bombings in Mumbai might seem to contradict my previous post.  But I don’t think so.  This isn’t a “war”.  Its a crime.  Perpetrated by organized criminals.

The reaction to such an act must be manifold.  Find the perpetrators and try them as criminals.  Seek to understand their motivations.  Get to the root cause/belief that lead them to this act.  Through information dissemination, education, and outreach, work to change the conditions that reinforce this belief.

The usual causes of mass violence are severe inequities and a perceived lack of options.  (I admit that mental illness may be an exception)  When people believe they have options and avenues to address their circumstances, they will work within the framework to effect change.  When they don’t, they smash the framework.

More cops, more oppression, more surveillance, more guns, more bombs, more incarceration does not remove the will to do violence from the disadvantaged.  This is the fallacy of the “war on terror”.

Otherwise, we are just wasting our money, our future, and our youth.

There is no War on Terror

Tuesday, July 11th, 2006

I object to the use of the term. It makes about as much sense as a “war on caution” or a “war on diplomacy”, which, now that I think of it, seems to be what the White House is all about.

You can’t have a war on a tactic. This isn’t a war. We are not a nation at war. This is a giant money laundering operation that was planned and begun before 9/11 and has been made easier because one millionaire crackpot with a dozen followers got lucky with a single attack. This is about draining the treasury while hiding behind the voluminous robes of religion. These are not conservatives, they are well organized radical propagandists brutally focused and synchronized in their mass media tuned message delivery. They do not govern, they waste our time with pointless non-binding resolutions nobody cares about, fiddling while real problems are ignored because they are hard and will cost money that they are already channeling into their own pockets. Meanwhile they foment the terror they claim to be fighting because they have wacked a beehive that would have been better left alone.

The entrenched Democrats are no better, but they are at least disorganized and more money will likely remain in government working for the taxpayers, simply because they haven’t figured out how to drain it as efficiently as war profiteers do. Given proper pressure, they might even spend the money on something good – like universal health care and education – something that could have been done for a fraction of the cost of the Iraq war.

Software in Europe

Thursday, July 6th, 2006

Scoble talks about tech in Europe. Since I worked in Paris for a year immediately after working three years in Silly-con Valley, I’ll weigh in here.

First, I think the valley is actually an obstacle to doing business. The number one cause is the cost of housing. I work in Seattle. When I price houses in the bay area, they cost just about twice what my house costs. Since I measure salaries in median home price multiples, I’d have to take a 50% pay cut to move there. All bay area companies freak when I simply double my salary when asked about my expectations.
Second, the local talent is overrated. Its young (people with low overhead who don’t mind paying $1500 for 400 square feet of living space), but inexperienced. So you need more boy wonders to get the same job done as you might if you hired seasoned professionals. Given a million$ budget, I’d prefer to hire 5 senior guys at $200k rather than 20 at $50k. I’ll get more done.

Furthermore, its a myth that the valley has the biggest talent pool. Denver Colorado has more programmers per capita than any other city in the USA. This is largely due to the concentration of telcos in Denver. The cost of housing is still sane (even a little depressed because of the telco industry’s woes), and these people know how to build for scale.

Getting back to Europe, I met some phenomenally sharp people in Paris. There’s a vibrant core there and they also have their geek functions. Furthermore, they seem less influenced by the fashion crazes that brought us garbage like Java and J2EE. There are at least 4 Smalltalk oriented conferences in Europe each year – compared to only one in the USA, and a lot of interesting research in how to build systems better happens in Europe.

As to the smoking angle, hooey. American geeks don’t smoke much? Extrapolate to Americans don’t smoke much. Euro geeks smoke about as much as Europeans. I did find the smoking annoying for the first couple months, then I got used to it. (People smoked at their desks in our office). Smoking is gradually falling out of favor in Europe, and if geeks don’t like smoking, they can have a non-smoking office. Not a factor.

Europeans are better at integrating tech into their lives than Americans. (Just compare a Euro cell phone with the garbage being pushed by Verizon, Cingular, etc). They also balance their lives and walk away from their computers to think now and then. They take holidays. Much was dicussed at gnomedex about the echo chamber. Europeans are better at leaving the echo chamber and experiencing life. The wide range of cultures in a smalll geographic region give them better perspective. They get 6-8 weeks of vacation, free health care, and job security/unemploymnent benefits lasting upto a year.  Tech workers want to give this up?  Don’t think so.  This is a key advantage.

If I had my choice, I’d live in Europe over California in a minute.

Blake Ross at Gnomedex

Saturday, July 1st, 2006

Blake was talking about Firefox buildout and promotion. Sadly his talk was hijacked by Dave Winer who began to challenge him to “talk to us like users” when his talk was oriented towards how Firefox was promoted and drove adoption.

Apparently the discussion has been tabled – perhaps it will be continued later. I hope so.

Followup: Looks like a post-conference dialog has been opened up and everybody is making nice.