Little snippet of Monty Python there.
Scoble points to the lastest Apple is Dying rant.
This time its not PC marketshare that predicts their demise but a drop in iPod sales. What is causing the drop? Tomi claims iPod sales are being displaced by music phone sales. I don’t doubt that more music phones are being sold. But I do doubt that people are using them to consume music.
First, I’ve got a very spiffy motorola camera phone with gps, bluetooth and a whole bunch of nifty features that have been crippled by my service provider for no apparent reason. I can’t even download the pictures I take with it to my computer over bluetooth. Apparently the phone is capable, but the feature is locked out. This is typical of dimwitted US cell phone providers – they offer spiffy phones and then cripple them to try to upsell services. Expect the music downloading to be similarly encumbered. So, for instance, I’ll bet most of these phones will let you buy music, but won’t let you upload it to iTunes.
My cell phone apparently will let me buy cartoons and video too. I don’t bother – so does this count as purchase of a video player? It shouldn’t.
Which brings me to the key point. The real service I care about is end to end service with ITMS. I like being able to buy singles for a buck and take them with me, but also add them to the home music library. Will the music phones integrate with ITMS? Can I upload them to iTunes? If not they’re stillborn for the current customer base.
I have a couple other theories for why sales have fallen. Market saturation is one. Most people who want an iPod have an iPod. Furthermore, I think the novelty of having all your music with you all the time is wearing thin for some. I see less people walking around with headsets on in general these days. Perhaps for some, the lifestyle simply didn’t stick.
Other nit is I don’t think he’s counting the ROKR as an iPod – but it is. Minor point I know. Also, I believe that the iPod will eventually converge with the phone, but I think Apple will do it either by licensing the technology as in the ROKR or bringing out their own phone.
Definitely I don’t think the iPod is doomed – too many network effects to consider. I’m certainly not switching anytime soon.